Potential Role of Bioenergy in Decarbonizing Russia’s Economy

Abstract

Russia is one of the world’s chief emitters of greenhouse gases even though it has vast potential to use zero-carbon energy resources, particularly biofuels. In order to prevent global warming above 1.5-2° C, Russia announced its commitment under the UN Paris Agreement to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. Analysis of the low-carbon development scenarios based on the RU-TIMES model developed for Russia indicates that cost-effective pathways toward deep decarbonization of the national economy are not feasible without extensive use of biofuels. By 2050 bioenergy together with improved energy efficiency, solar and wind power, and carbon capture and storage technologies could result in CO2 emissions from domestic energy production that are 80-90% less than in 2010. Russia’s rich store of natural resources and innovative technologies offer opportunities to increase domestic production of bioenergy by 2050 to levels comparable with the output from all of its nuclear and hydropower plants. Russia’s competitive advantages could make it a world leader in modern bioenergy markets, especially during the transition to green energy, decarbonization of the global economy, and international carbon pricing. However, developing bioenergy is not a priority for either the Russian Energy Strategy Through 2035 or the Low-Carbon Development Strategy Through 2050. This study provides more accurate estimates of the potential for bioenergy to fulfill Russia’s Paris Agreement commitments and thoroughly decarbonize its economy.