FACTORS INFLUENCING TRAFFIC ACCIDENT MORTALITY

Abstract

This study provides a quantitative analysis of the mortality factors affecting traffic accidents in Russia and offers practical policy recommendations for reducing mortality on public roads. Although the posted speed limit is one of the main factors governing the severity of damage in automotive accidents, setting it lower will tend to reduce the rate of economic growth. Therefore, devising policy instruments that will reduce mortality without compromising economic development should have a high priority. The literature traditionally distinguishes five sets of factors that affect the likelihood and severity of an accident: the characteristics of traffic on a given road network, the maintenance of the road network, weather conditions, driver characteristics, and the condition of the vehicle. Logit models used for quantitative econometric analysis of traffic accident data in Russia from 2015 to 2019 have identified several groups of manageable factors that are highly correlated with the probability of a fatality from an accident. The primary factors among them are road condition, correct operation of vehicles, and observance of traffic rules by drivers. If any of these factors are less than optimal at the time of an accident, the likelihood of death increases. To reduce the probability of traffic fatalities, unsatisfactory road conditions should be eliminated, additional special road structures (such as pedestrian crossings and regulated intersections) should be arranged, liability for certain types of traffic violations should be more stringent and preventing serious types of malfunctions should be a focus of scheduled vehicle maintenance.