The Ukraine Conflict, Economic-Military Power Balances and Economic Sanctions

Abstract

The evolution and outcomes of conflicts in Europe, including the current one in Ukraine, have been influenced by the dynamics of economic, technological and military balances, which in turn are affected by the economic warfare and sanctions that have been used to alter them. This article reviews defence economic concepts of relevance to the Ukraine conflict and then draws out lessons for the present concerning power balances, military capabilities, conventional deterrence, economic warfare and counter-measures against sanctions from experiences in Europe in the 20th century. An evaluation is made of the impacts of economic sanctions on Russia and Ukraine in 2014–2016.