The Problem of Reliable Planning of the Key Indicators of the Electricity Distribution Network Development in the Russian Federation

Abstract

This article analyses the system of planning the electricity distribution network development indicators existing in the Russian Federation. The levels of the electricity planning system and its structure are also studied. The author presents a retrospective analysis of the electricity consumption planning for the last 7 years, which shows that the previously studied electricity consumption planning was based on very optimistic estimates that had never been implemented in practice. The article specifies the main planning problems of the distribution network companies' key indicators and estimates the methods used in the middle and long-term planning of electricity consumption. The author emphasizes the main factors affecting the quality of planning the key indicators of the electricity distribution network development. They are low quality of statistical information and absence of a long-term retrospective comparative data base; lack of a comprehensive system of data base collection, aggregation and publication of reports; application of different calculation methodologies of the industry's key indicators; and organizational and structural changes in the offices responsible for statistical data aggregation (Federal State Statistics Service (FSSS), Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Russian Federation (FAS), etc.). Finally, the article offers proposals and recommendations on improving the planning system of the electricity distribution network of the Russian Federation aimed at raising the reliability of forecasts and, consequently, decreasing the risks of investing in the energy infrastructure.